2 Billion South Asians Face Cost Crisis From Middle East War
Key Points
- India imports 85 percent of crude oil it consumes, making it the world's third-largest importer exposed to Gulf supply disruptions.
- Sajida Jibran, a 45-year-old housekeeper in Karachi, Pakistan, saw her rent rise from 15,000 to 25,000 Pakistani rupees and pulled her children from school due to energy costs.
- Pakistan's natural gas bills increased from 1,500 to 5,000 rupees monthly as the country depleted domestic reserves and now relies on imports.
Families Abandoning Education for Basic Survival
The cost escalation has forced impossible choices on low-income households. Jibran made the wrenching decision to stop paying her children's school fees, unable to simultaneously afford both education and food. "When I see my children sitting at home, unable to continue their studies, I can't sleep, day or night. Financially, I feel completely helpless," she said. Her situation reflects broader patterns across the region, where the poorest and most economically vulnerable bear the brunt of energy shocks.
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Pakistan's vulnerability stems partly from resource depletion. The country historically enjoyed minimal natural gas bills because gas was locally produced, but having depleted its reserves, Pakistan now largely imports natural gas, exposing households to global price volatility. Bangladesh, while producing natural gas domestically, increasingly relies on imported LNG as local production fails to meet demand, with Qatar serving as a main supplier.
Nepal's exposure is indirect but consequential. The landlocked nation has no direct crude oil or LNG imports from the Gulf and instead relies on India for virtually all petroleum products, including petrol, diesel, kerosene and LPG. When India's energy supply chain faces disruptions or higher costs, Nepal's fuel supplies and prices follow immediately.
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Balendra Singh, a 67-year-old security guard in New Delhi, took drastic action to manage costs. Living in Noida, adjacent to New Delhi, with six family members in a single room, Singh was forced to send some family members back to his village in Lucknow to reduce expensive city expenses. India, while more diversified than its South Asian neighbours with crude arriving from Russia, Africa and the Americas, still faces the largest exposure in absolute volumes due to its massive import dependence.
The crisis underscores how regional economic interdependence and global energy markets expose even distant populations to Middle East instability, with those lacking financial reserves having no buffer against supply shocks or price spikes.
What Happens Next
South Asian governments will likely pursue diversified energy sourcing agreements outside the Gulf, but structural dependencies on LNG imports will persist through 2027. Humanitarian pressure may mount if energy costs remain elevated, potentially triggering policy responses on fuel subsidies or rationing. India's larger supply diversity may insulate it from the worst outcomes facing Pakistan and Bangladesh.
Sources: Al Jazeera and other international news outlets.
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