OpenAI and Anthropic Generate 10x More Revenue Than All Chinese AI Models Combined
Key Points
- OpenAI generated $40 billion in annual recurring revenue as of Thursday, compared to $4.2 billion combined across all Chinese AI models, according to Rhodium Group research published Thursday.
- DeepSeek's ARR was $500 million, MiniMax $800 million, Moonshot $1 billion, and Z.ai $1.8 billion, while ByteDance reached $4 billion and Alibaba $2.4 billion.
- Moonshot and DeepSeek carry valuation-to-revenue multiples of 50x and 163x respectively, far exceeding OpenAI's 34x and Anthropic's 21x ratios.
Z.ai told investors on Wednesday its latest ARR was $1.8 billion, according to a transcript seen by CNBC, but the company now expects its ARR by the end of the year to reach $3 billion, up from $2.4 billion previously forecast. Despite rapid user adoption of Chinese AI models, the revenue growth has not yet translated into valuations that align with comparable U.S. firms.
Rhodium estimated more than 60 percent of equity investment in Chinese AI chips and servers came from state-affiliated sources. The analysts noted that Chinese AI labs are exploring ways to get a larger cut of revenue from third parties offering access to the models, whose open-source nature allows anyone with sufficiently capable hardware to download and run them independently. U.S. models remain mostly closed-source, and the cost per task for leading AI models from OpenAI and Anthropic exceeds that of Chinese models, according to AI-comparison firm Artificial Analysis.
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Moonshot has reportedly filed confidentially for a Hong Kong IPO, while DeepSeek is also reportedly preparing for a listing. Anthropic is expected to list in the U.S. next month, while OpenAI has pushed its IPO plans to next year. Moonshot declined to comment on the confidential filing, and DeepSeek and Anthropic did not respond to requests for comment.
The Rhodium analysis references figures from summer 2024, and usage of Chinese AI models has increased from lower levels earlier in the year. Wright noted that government funding has proven helpful on the hardware side of compute capacity buildout but will likely not extend to direct funding for frontier laboratories, creating a structural financing challenge for Chinese competitors seeking to scale at the pace of their U.S. counterparts.
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What This Means
Chinese AI companies face a critical financing gap that will limit their ability to scale sustainably despite user adoption surging. Without closing the valuation-to-revenue gap—DeepSeek trades at 163x revenue versus OpenAI's 34x—Chinese startups preparing IPOs will struggle to attract institutional capital needed to match U.S. competitors' compute investments and model development. Government-backed hardware support cannot offset the absence of direct funding for frontier labs.
Sources: CNBC and other international news outlets.
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