Trump Warns Iran Over Nuclear Site Activity; Oil Rises 1%
Key Points
- Trump warned Iran Wednesday at the Republican convention not to engage in activity at Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site, threatening military action.
- Satellite imagery analysis by CSIS showed more road activity at Pickaxe Mountain in 2026 than at any point in the site's history.
- Brent crude futures with November delivery traded 0.9% higher at $102.10 per barrel Thursday morning after Iran attacked 10 ships near Strait of Hormuz.
Tanker Attacks Drive Oil Market Higher
The military escalation near the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude prices higher Thursday. Brent crude futures with November delivery traded 0.9% higher at $102.10 per barrel Thursday morning, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 1% to $97.01. The energy market remains alert for further supply disruptions, with ongoing fighting between Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen adding to market tensions.
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The U.S. previously struck three Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025, including Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan, which American officials said at the time had significantly set back Tehran's ability to build a nuclear weapon. Iran has repeatedly denied seeking nuclear weapons. Trump said he did not expect the U.S.-Iran war to end before November's midterm elections, stating "I think the war will end immediately after the election because they can't hold out any longer." He added that short-term economic pain for American consumers was justified to prevent Iran from developing nuclear capabilities.
Market analysts at ING warned that oil flows could tighten more sharply if escalation disrupts production, with crude supplies having surprised to the upside in recent weeks. Strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey noted that Chinese buying behavior would be "crucial to the outlook" in determining whether the current rally sustains momentum or fades. The Strait of Hormuz disruption risk underscores how military tensions between Washington and Tehran directly constrain global energy supply and price stability.
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Market Outlook
Oil markets face heightened volatility through the U.S. midterm elections in November. If tanker attacks persist near the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude could test $105-110 per barrel as supply concerns mount. However, strategic petroleum reserve releases and demand weakness could cap gains. Chinese import decisions will be the critical variable determining whether current price levels hold.
Sources: CNBC and other international news outlets.
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