Iran Faces Domestic Armed Threats Amid US-Israel War in 2026
Key Points
- Iranian authorities announced arrests of 111 so-called monarchist cells across 26 provinces on March 18, according to the Intelligence Ministry.
- Kurdish armed groups based in northern Iraq, designated terrorist outfits by Iran, were considered by the Trump administration to lead limited ground operations in western Iran starting in late February 2026.
- State media reported on September 7 that an eight-member network affiliated with pro-monarchy groups was arrested in Fars province for using Molotov cocktails during January nationwide protests.
External Groups Exploiting Internal Instability
While pro-monarchy arrests dominate state security messaging, experts and officials identify Kurdish armed groups as Iran's largest non-state armed threat. Multiple Kurdish organizations based in the semiautonomous region of northern Iraq, designated as terrorist outfits by Iranian authorities, have operated from mountainous bases for years. The Trump administration explicitly considered deploying these Kurdish fighters to lead limited ground operations in western Iran to complement extensive air strikes by US and Israeli military forces during the war that began in late February.
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Iran's military has attacked bases operated by these Kurdish groups inside Iraq in recent years while pursuing security agreements with the Iraqi government to contain their activities. The convergence of internal discontent and external military support creates what government officials frame as a coordinated challenge to national security.
Iranian authorities have characterized the January protests as a coup orchestrated by armed agents of the United States and Israel, including pro-monarchist operatives. The United Nations and international rights groups have condemned state security forces for what they described as brutality during the crackdown on protesters. The judiciary has executed dozens of prisoners since the war began, including individuals detained during the January demonstrations.
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Beyond the monarchy-focused arrests, Iranian authorities have detained numerous students, artists, businesspeople, journalists, and healthcare workers over recent months on charges related to national security. These actions underscore leadership concerns about more potential protests as public discontent rises amid deteriorating economic conditions.
The pattern of domestic security operations and cross-border military actions against Kurdish positions demonstrates Iran faces coordinated internal and external pressure. Whether state security measures prove sufficient to contain both pro-monarchy sentiment and externally-backed armed groups will shape Iran's stability through the remainder of the conflict.
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What Happens Next
Iranian authorities will likely intensify arrests of suspected pro-monarchy and opposition figures as economic hardship deepens. The convergence of internal instability and external military pressure could prompt further cross-border operations against Kurdish bases in Iraq, or expanded security cooperation between Tehran and Baghdad. Protest cycles may resume during periods of military escalation or economic deterioration, testing state capacity to maintain domestic control.
Sources: Al Jazeera and other international news outlets.
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