Bitcoin Gains 25% in August, Faces $82,500 Resistance Wall
Key Points
- Bitcoin gained 24.6% in August 2026, closing above its 50-month moving average for the first time since the crypto winter began.
- On Myriad Markets, traders are pricing 77% probability that Bitcoin reaches $84,000 before falling to $55,000.
- Bitcoin is trading near $77,500 on September 1, 2026, stalled under a resistance zone at $82,500 despite the strong monthly rally.
On Myriad Markets, a prediction market built by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, traders are betting 77% probability that Bitcoin reaches $84,000 before falling back to $55,000, a bullish read that reflects August's momentum more than current chart signals. The daily chart's Relative Strength Index, which measures overbought and oversold conditions on a 0-to-100 scale, sits at 66.1—bullish territory but edging toward the 70 mark where traders typically expect profit-taking to accelerate. The Average Directional Index, which measures trend strength regardless of direction, is at 43.7, well above the 25 threshold that confirms a real trend is in place.
Yet a bearish technical signal persists: the 50-day exponential moving average remains below the 200-day exponential moving average in what traders read as a warning sign. This crossover pattern means the longer-term trend structure has not yet fully flipped bullish, even though the current price has surged ahead of these averages. The gap between the two averages is shortening, however, which could point to a bullish crossover in coming weeks.
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Bitcoin's recovery began in June 2026 after hitting a 21-month low near $59,300, before the August rally triggered by Bessent's liquidity announcement. The rally cooled after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his first Jackson Hole address as chairman to warn that inflation numbers "are more concerning" than the labor market, reviving talk of a rate hike at the Fed's September 15-16 meeting.
On the monthly chart, Bitcoin's price movement signals a meaningful technical shift. The cryptocurrency spent essentially all of the second half of 2025 through July 2026 trading below its 50-month moving average—a pattern that has occurred only a few times in Bitcoin's history: during the 2018-2019 bear market following the 2017 peak, and again through 2022's collapse after the Terra/LUNA and FTX failures. August's monthly candle pushed Bitcoin back above that critical average, marking the best performing month since November 2024.
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However, monthly-level indicators show caution: the monthly RSI is neutral at 50.6, and monthly ADX is 23.7, just shy of the 25 threshold that confirms an established trend. September is Bitcoin's historically weakest month, and traders must now navigate both seasonal headwinds and the divergence between bullish short-term momentum signals and the lack of confirmed trend strength on longer timeframes. The gap between prediction market bets of 77% odds for $84,000 and the technical resistance holding at $82,500 since late August suggests elevated volatility ahead.
Why this matters: Bitcoin's August rally broke the crypto winter pattern, but the stalled price action and mixed technical signals leave traders uncertain whether the recovery is sustainable or merely a relief rally before selling pressure resumes.
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Market Outlook
Bitcoin faces competing forces through early September: bullish 77% odds on Myriad Markets for $84,000 clash against technical resistance at $82,500 and the historically weak September seasonality. If RSI reaches 70 overbought territory, profit-taking could push price toward support near $72,000-$75,000. A break above $82,500 with strengthening ADX could accelerate gains, but the 50/200-day moving average bearish crossover suggests caution remains warranted.
Sources: Decrypt and other international news outlets.
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