Grand Theft Auto 6 Preview Crashes Netflix, Twitch; Take-Two Shares Rise
Key Points
- Netflix and Twitch experienced bandwidth issues during GTA 6 preview release on Thursday, with some viewers receiving error messages.
- Global preorders reached $260 million, with analytics firm Newzoo projecting $4.5 billion in sales by launch week.
- Take-Two Interactive shares rose 2.5% in premarket trading Friday; GTA 6 launches November 19 for PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X/S.
Christopher Dring, editor-in-chief and co-founder of analysis firm The Game Business, told CNBC that Netflix's involvement demonstrated the franchise's exceptional status. "I've never seen Netflix do anything where they put a game on display, and it just shows the power of this particular title, it's in a league of its own," Dring said. He noted that Grand Theft Auto 5, released 13 years ago, still ranks in the top five bestselling video games annually, suggesting strong staying power for the franchise.
Analyst Outlook and Market Response
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Analysts at Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan both described themselves as "bullish" on Take-Two stock in notes published Friday, pointing to increased institutional and retail investor interest ahead of the highly anticipated launch. Wells Fargo analysts, however, cautioned that sustained stock gains would require positive news regarding GTA Online, the game's multiplayer component, in addition to the successful trailer reception.
The preview release occurred weeks after leaked gameplay footage surfaced online, which Rockstar Games had described as "heartbreaking." Dring indicated that Thursday's positive player reception suggests the leaks will not damage commercial performance. The alleged source of the leaks claimed the breach was protest against Rockstar's digital-only release strategy and Sony's plan to end PlayStation disc production in 2028.
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Take-Two CEO Strauss Zelnick stated on the company's August 7 earnings call that physical discs "did not make sense to the consumer" and noted the company's business was "well over 90% digitally distributed." Data from market research firm Circana shows U.S. physical game disc sales have fallen to their lowest level on record at $85 million, supporting Rockstar's strategic shift.
The console market faces broader headwinds, with hardware sales in the U.S. declining to $282 million in July—the lowest level since the pandemic, per Circana. Console prices have risen substantially due to increased memory and storage costs, with the standard Xbox Series X now retailing at $800, compared to its $500 launch price in 2020.
The industry is banking on GTA 6 to revitalize console hardware demand. GTA 5's sustained commercial success across more than a decade suggests the franchise has capacity to drive adoption and recovery in the stagnant console market segment.
What This Means
GTA 6's successful preview and record preorders position Take-Two to potentially achieve the $4.5 billion first-week projection, driving console hardware sales recovery. However, game industry performance depends heavily on GTA Online reception and avoiding launch delays. The digital-only strategy will likely accelerate physical media's decline, becoming the industry standard within 18-24 months as console makers phase out disc drives entirely.
Sources: CNBC and other international news outlets.
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